Libya: Things Will Eventually Get Easier

On May 15, President Bush gave Congress a notice that that it wants Libya off its list of countries supporting terrorists. The Administration must wait 45 days before it may remove Libya from the list. Once we get to the end of that 45 day period, you should expect to see the Commerce Department revise the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) to relax US export and reexport controls on Libya by ending most of the AT-based (e.g., 9A991, 4A994, 5A991) licensing requirements.

What about exports and retransfers of defense articles and services? DDTC announced that Libya is still a proscribed country listed in 126.1 of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which means there is a presumption of denial for license/agreement applications. DDTC said it will stick with this policy until it publishes a notice in the Federal Register.

OK, if you want my prediction of the future on this: I think the US Government will continue to move slowly to relax controls on Libya. It has moved slowly to relax the EAR controls and I think it will be a while before it significantly changes Libya’s status under the ITAR.

(Now, that is what I call a professional prediction. All I said is “it will be a while” and the US Government will move “slowly.” Not very informative, but certainly bound to be 100% accurate.)